Electoral violence in Papua New Guinea

TLDR

Electoral violence persists in Papua New Guinea, with 50 reported deaths during the general election in July. The country has been plagued with violence since independence and recently due to disenfranchised voters and tribal feuds. Political violence has stagnated the country’s democratic transition, requiring foreign overseers to aid and mitigate the ethnic conflicts between the 800 language groups across the nation.

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is holding its national election in July, electing all 118 seats in the National Parliament. However, electoral cycles often turn violent in PNG, as shown in previous elections. Although casualties have dropped to around 50, compared to the hundreds dead in 2017, the widespread violence has effectively crippled the election and democratic governance. Numerous groups disrupted the process by destroying ballot boxes or closing voting stations, forcing Australia to send over 150 troops to Port Moresby, PNG’s capital, as peacekeeping forces.

The periodic electoral violence in PNG is primarily caused by the lack of public trust in electoral integrity and fairness. Over one million eligible voters were unable to vote as the electoral roll is outdated. In fact, it has not been fully updated since 2012 due to inefficient administration and a lack of cooperation between Port Moresby and the local councils. The disenchantment of voters has led to accusations of unfair elections serving to the advantage of certain ethnic groups and contributing to the country’s decades-long ethnic conflicts. Ethnic relations play a significant role in PNG politics — the country’s population constitutes over 800 language groups. This statistic, coupled with the decade-long Bougainville insurgency in the 1990s that led to the creation of the Autonomous Bougainville Government further emphasises ethnic relations in the region.

The highly decentralised political system in PNG is attributed to the highly diverse demographic and inaccessibility in its rural regions. Local governments and leaders are granted significant policymaking authority to have a chance of any meaningful governance over the numerous and distinct tribes. The decentralised system has made it challenging for Port Moresby to assert control over the country due to the lack of bargaining chips for coordination and cooperation, resulting in both inefficient and chaotic governance of PNG.

As PNG re-enters a new cycle of electoral violence, it has again illustrated that Port Moresby has to undergo a lengthy political reform to make the fragile peace permanent. Facilitating coordination between the central and local governments will be instrumental in this reform process. In the short run, PNG requires foreign assistance and aid as peacekeepers to keep its economy afloat to prevent further riots. However, this has put Port Moresby in a tricky spot: PNG is now stuck in the tug-of-war between Australia and China.

PNG fell into the Australian sphere of influence after WWI, as Canberra was mandated to rule the island-nation by the League of Nations in 1920 until it declared independence in 1975. The two countries remained friendly with close economic and diplomatic ties. Indeed, the Agreement on Trade and Commercial Relations (PATCRA) was signed to facilitate trade by lowering tariffs on imported goods. However, PNG has landed itself in the midst of the Australian-Chinese struggle for power. This comes as Beijing seeks to contest Canberra’s Pacific dominance by increasing cooperation with the Pacific nations, including PNG. China entering the region has strained relations between Port Moresby and Canberra. Beijing has also been providing training to the PNG army, raising security concerns from Australia, as the two countries are only split by the 151km wide Torres Strait. As Australian-Chinese relations deteriorate, Port Moresby is put on the spot to choose its allies, making the already unstable country more volatile as it falls into the geopolitical row between the two powers.

The situation is also concerning for the region’s democratic development. As was illustrated in the previous Daily Briefings covering the rise of Chinese autocracy, the Burmese coup, and the collapse of Sri Lanka, democracy has been under threat in recent years in the subcontinent. The intervention and support from Australia (i.e. 150 troops sent to Port Moresby) were perceived as insufficient and apathetic. The level of support and aid from Canberra needs to increase to secure PNG from falling into China’s expanding sphere of influence, a bloc that has been eroding the region’s democracy.

Political violence is expected to decrease in the country as the ballot is over on July 22. However, the nation is not entirely in the clear as unrest could erupt again if the election results are marred or its integrity is contested by any of the running parties during the lengthy ballot counting process, especially that of Pangu Pati and the PNC. The high degree of decentralisation will likely continue to fuel ethnic conflicts, as Port Moresby has little authority or control over regional governance controlled by local leaders or tribal chiefs.

Papua New Guinea faces the long-term issue of political deadlock and ineffective governance as a result of its inefficient administration. Deep-rooted reforms are necessary for Port Moresby to assert effective control over the Highlands, which are mostly led by the tribal chiefs. Yet, the country is highly corrupt and plagued with cronyism from various political parties, making the transition phase as bitter as it can be and near impossible due to the lack of international aid and oversight.

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