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Electric Bicycles Set To Go Mainstream

Will electric bikes and trikes improve our cities and change the way we live?

Electric bicycles are a rising tide, probably a tide that will keep rising and never recede.

America has been slow to catch E-Bike fever. That is about to change. Suddenly, all conditions appear ready for lift-off.

Some believe electric bikes will change our cities and the way we live. They’re the next big thing. They’ll be more popular than medical marijuana. Legal in all 50 states! Soon, almost as common as cell phones?

Electric tricycles in senior-citizen communities. Electric bikes on college campuses, city streets and sidewalks. Electric tricycles delivering pizza.

“E-Bikes are officially mainstream,” Court Rye announced in September. Rye has reviewed hundreds of E-Bikes since 2012 on ElectricBikeReview.com and YouTube. He’s toured electric bicycle factories in Europe, China, and the U.S., interviewed bike shop managers.

Electric bikes “could actually be the future of transportation.”Andrew J. Hawkins said in an October report for The Verge. E-Bikes will make cities more livable and help clear up traffic congestion, he added.

Harley-Davidson is bringing out a 105-horsepower electric motorcycle, called LiveWire. In 2020, the motorcycle company will debut a line of electric bicycles.

General Motors is launching its ARIV brand of electric bikes in Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Two models sell for $3,000 to $4,000 in U.S. dollars. But when will GM electric bikes go on sale in America?

It’s impossible to know how much oxygen big-name corporations will suck up in the U.S. E-Bike industry. Hundreds of smaller companies are already competing for market share. They have a big head start. If you want names, mine the information on Court Rye’s website.

Bicycles, of course, are old technology. In the 1950s, every child in my neighborhood could ride a bike by age five or six. It’s something you never unlearn, even if you don’t ride for 40 years.

Today, every child has a cell phone, but not a bike. In the 2020s, maybe every college student will have a cell phone AND an electric bike.

Some college students — and some high school students, too — will have several E-Bikes. One for commuting, another for off-roading. Buy stock now.

When did electric scooters start to grow like weeds in city streets? Two or three years ago?

More important, WHY did electric scooters happen? Because demand and technology matured at about the same time. That’s my theory.

The critical breakthrough was the lithium-ion battery, commercialized and mass-produced at reasonable price. The reasonable price is relative, because lithium-ion batteries are still very expensive. But they last a long time. You simply recharge them every day. Lithium-ion batteries are the secret ingredient in everything from cell phones to Tesla electric cars. (Cautionary note: Lithium-ion batteries have been known to catch fire. See a source at the end of this story.)

So, what’s the price tag on electric bicycles? You can buy a good E-Bike or trike for between $1,500 and $3,000. Sounds like a lot for a bike. But not so much, compared to the cost of a new car. A few cheap E-bike models are offered at less than $1,000. More sophisticated and top-quality electric bikes and trikes sell in the $3,000 to $6,000 range, and even higher.

Now is the time for electric bicycles in America. Electric scooters will probably hold on to market share as a low-cost alternative, and for fun. But the future might just belong to electric bicycles and tricycles. And electric or hybrid cars, of course.

All the pieces are in place for the electric bicycle revolution. Cities have been promoting bike paths for years, aiming to control pollution and congestion. General Motors, Ford and Chrysler are giving up on their sedan models. People want SUVs and pickups. And many younger people don’t want a car at all. Or can’t afford it.

Is petroleum an issue, or what? Global warming is here. How much longer can gas-guzzling persist? The internal-combustion engine has ruled for more than a century. Its day is coming to an end.

The great transition is under way. First Toyota had the hybrid Prius, now we see electric cars like Tesla, and even electric SUVs. Electric motorcycles. Soon electric trucks. And, of course, electric drones (groan).

Electric bicycles might outlast and surpass them all, except maybe the drones. E-Bikes are cool for recreation and exercise; soon, basic transportation will become equally important. The technology is ready. Hundreds of entrepreneurs are rushing to cash in on exploding demand. Growth in sales since 2014 has been significant.

Ironically though, getting your hands on an electric bike is challenging, at the moment. You can’t walk into Walmart and buy one. They’re hard to find, even at bicycle shops. And the number of bicycle shops is dwindling. As I write this, Bob, owner of a venerable bike shop in Clearwater, FL, is liquidating his stock.

“Bike shops are in trouble,” Gloria Liu reported on Bicycling.com in June 2019. The number of shops in the U.S. declined by 13 percent from 2010 to 2016, according to the National Bicycle Dealers Association.

Walmart and Amazon.com handle an increasing share of the market for pedal bikes. While you’re not likely to find an electric bike at Walmart, Amazon has a selection of electric rides. Walmart and Target offer some E-Bikes via the internet.

But who wants to spend anywhere from $1,500 to $5,000 sight-unseen, without a test drive? Folks who’ve only recently discovered electric bikes, like your humble reporter, feel woefully uninformed. The selection and is overwhelming. They’re powered by three different types of motors, and technical details can be intimidating.

The electric bicycle market is confusing to the point of chaotic, growing fast as a teenager. We’re used to concentrated industries, dominated by a few big corporations. The electric bike industry is just the opposite. Hundreds of manufacturers and distributors jostling for business. Many of them have little or no distribution system! They’re selling products direct from their websites, or through Amazon.com.

What about warranties? Where do you get service for an E-Bike purchased on the internet? It’s a buyer-beware marketplace.

Not surprisingly, China dominates the electric bicycle market. Liu estimates there are 265 million E-Bikes in China, 10 million in Europe, and only 1 million in the U.S. No wonder General Motors is introducing its electric bikes in Europe. How long will GM shun the American market?

Many bikes sold in the U.S. are manufactured in China, or in Europe. Most of the electric components come from China, or some other place with low-cost labor, but many of the bikes are assembled in the U.S.

Many of the electric bicycles in the U.S. at this moment are conventional bikes that were converted to electric. Electric bike conversion kits containing a motor, battery, and miscellaneous electric parts have been available for more than a decade.

Conversion kits offer one way to get an electric bike with some confidence. The CEO of an E-Bike company in Pennsylvania actually suggested this to me: Go to a good bike shop, a shop with at least one experienced technician on staff. Pick out a bike that makes you feel comfortable. Now ask if they have or can order an electric conversion kit. Can they put the whole thing together for you? Yes they can, and you’ll pay a stiff fee for assembly. But you’ll have a source for service after the sale.

Name the problem, electric bicycles are the solution, or at least part of the solution:

It’s premature to predict the extinction of automobiles. Vehicles with internal-combustion engines will be around for a while yet. The petroleum industry will see to that.

But no one can deny the promise of electric bicycles and tricycles.

“E-Bikes can open up a whole world, especially for people with disabilities,” says Andrew J. Hawkins. “Once you start riding, you’re not going to want to stop.”

I learned about E-Bikes and E-Trikes thanks to a 74-year-old YouTube sage named Rusty78609. He’s posted casual reports on three electric tricycles. No competition for the authoritative Electric Bike Review. But Rusty has ride-along videos giving a feel for what it’s like to wander the neighborhood on an electric trike.

To end on a philosophical note, Rusty shall have the last word:

Google “electric bicycles,” and you’ll be overwhelmed. The first 20 hits may be ads.

For an excellent nine-minute introduction, seek The Verge on YouTube and watch, “Electric Bikes: Everything You Need To Know,” Oct. 10, 2019, by Andrew J. Hawkins.

Go to ElectricBikeReview.com or Electric Bike Review EBR on YouTube and watch, “E-Bikes Are Officially Mainstream,” Sept. 21, 2019, by Court Rye. At the same website or YouTube channel, you’ll find enough reviews of electric bikes and trikes to make your eyes cross and your head spin like a bicycle tire.

For a primer on lithium-ion battery issues, see “Why Do E-Bikes Catch Fire?” by Dan Roe on Bicycling.com, Aug. 23, 2019.

Good luck. Happy trails. Ride prudently and mind your speed. Please be especially considerate of pedestrians.

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